NFL Week 8

Wow, week eight already? It feels like the NFL season just started yesterday, but with October coming to an end and the halfway mark approaching, the NFL season clearly didn’t start yesterday. The Cowboys are 1-5, the Vikings are 2-4, the Chargers are 2-5, and the Colts are in third place in their division…how predictable?

Not only are teams performing surprisingly, but Brandon Lloyd is second in the league in receiving yards, Kyle Orton’s second in passing yards, and Darrelle Revis has been less than the best cover corner in the game this season. I know Revis has been hurt, but I’m pretty sure he won’t be able to pay the tax on Revis Island if he doesn’t start to shut down his opponents in the next couple of weeks. The parity in the NFL seems to be at an all-time high.

Here are my picks for Week 8...

(Lines as of Saturday morning, home teams in CAPS)

Denver (+2) over San Francisco (in London, UK)

Troy Smith starting against a Denver team coming off of their worst loss possibly ever (I know, that’s quite a statement). The Broncos defense is clearly banged up, and the Niners clearly need a win, but the wheels fell off the Niners wagon a long time ago. This game isn’t good enough to be played on U.S. soil.

Jacksonville (+6.5) over DALLAS

It seems every game is a trap game for the Cowboys. They really got beat bad by a very good Giants team on MNF, and they’re probably looking forward to getting back to basics against the well below average Jaguars. I’m just not taking the Cowboys until they look better than they’ve been all season, it’s been six games already, they lost their quarterback, what reason is there to think they can beat anyone by almost a whole touchdown?

Washington (+2.5) over DETROIT

The Redskins give up a lot of yards a game but are still a top-10 defense as far as points allowed goes. Ryan Torain is coming off of the best two games of his career and the Lions give up almost 140 rush yards a game. The Lions secondary is weak and as long as McNabb’s line can hold the pressure the Lions will send at him, the Redskins should do more than cover this one.

NY JETS (-6) over Green Bay

I expect the Jets should only get better as the season progresses, and the Packers are dropping like flies. Aaron Rodgers is dreadful at getting rid of the ball quickly and the Jets pass rush should have a field day with the Packers O-line/Rodgers. The Packers are still a better team than most analysts are giving them credit for, but the Jets seem to have the advantage in every aspect of this game. Teams have been exploiting the Jets secondary, but Revis said he’s 100% healthy, and as we all know, he’s no slouch.

ST. LOUIS (-3) over Carolina

I pick the Rams every week, and for some reason I don’t feel comfortable with them against the Panthers. And then I look at the Panthers stats and there’s no way I can pick that team to win anything. David Gettis (or anyone else) has to emerge as a legit receiving option before the Panthers offense can compete and beat anybody, including the once dreadful Rams. St. Louis has been a pleasant surprise behind Sam Bradford, who has gone the last two games without a pick. Steven Jackson’s had 100-plus rushing games his last three times out and the Rams should play confident as the better team Sunday.

CINCINNATI (-1) over Miami

This is the one pick I’m making that I really hate. The Dolphins seem to be golden when it comes to covering spreads and winning tough games, but I think the Bengals can win this one. They’re underachieving like no other, but they’ve only played two of their six games at home this season. They’ve lost three straight games but Carson Palmer has been completing passes at a high percentage and is due for a win. I think it’s the key to every game, but the key to this game is the battle up front, if the Bengals can protect Palmer they should be winning this one.

Buffalo (+7.5) over KANSAS CITY

The Bills aren’t going to lose every game they play this season, and after losing to the Ravens in OT they have to be as hungry as ever for a win. Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked better in each start, and he really seems to be connecting with Lee Evans and Steve Johnson. I don’t think Kansas City’s that good that they win by more than a touchdown against the Bills.

Tennessee (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO

What’s the deal with Vegas’s love affair with the Chargers? Every week the Chargers come out and lose games for themselves. It’s not like they’re outplayed every week, or that they’re just not as talented as their opponents, it’s that they make mistake after mistake that good teams just can’t make. The Titans are as good as anyone in the NFL, and unlike the Chargers, they win because they do all the little things. They tackle through the whistles, they don’t turn the football over much, and they play for a coach who knows how to lead men. The Chargers are still talented, but don’t mistake them for a good football team.

Tampa Bay (+3) over ARIZONA

I look at the Cardinals and I just don’t see anything that I like. They’re dead last in the league in yards per game, they give up the fifth most yards per game on defense, and they’re tied for second to last in turnover differential. Max Hall has more concussions than touchdown passes this season, and Josh Freeman is not only playing well, but leading his team to victories. The Bucs have allowed four straight 100-yard rushers, but Beenie Wells really is no Steven Jackson.

OAKLAND (-2.5) over Seattle

How good of a division leader could the Seahawks be if they're underdogs against the Raiders? Not to take anything away from the Raiders, but I’m not picking the Seahawks unless they’re playing at home, which this weekend they’re not. The Raiders are playing with some momentum after putting 59-points on rival Denver, but the Seahawks rush defense hasn’t been too shabby and the Raiders don’t really have much of a passing game. I don’t like Seattle yet so I’m going Rayyyyduhhhz.

Minnesota (+6) over NEW ENGLAND

I know, the Pats are at home and playing as good as anyone in the NFL right now, and Brett Favre’s hurt/may not play/getting killed by the media every day still. The wild card in this game is Brad Childress. If he benches Favre then I lose this pick immediately, but I can’t see Favre sitting this one out without raising hell. I don’t think Favre would be back this season if he wasn’t so important to this team, and I don’t think they wouldn’t play him if he felt he was capable of playing. Adrian Peterson will run all over the Pats, and Favre will make plays, because that’s what he is, a playmaker first and a quarterback second. Husband/human-being in a distant third.

Pittsburgh (+1) over NEW ORLEANS

I’m picking another dog. I just don’t see how anyone expects the Saints to pull this one out without a real running back. I know RB is the easiest position to play in the NFL, but say that after you play the Steelers. The Steelers will be without d-end Aaron Smith, but if you haven’t noticed it’s the scheme that makes the Steelers as good as they are, and I think they’re better than a struggling Saints who just lost at home to the Browns. Do you know what the Steelers do with the Browns? I think this will be a great game, and I don’t want to count the Saints out, but I like black and yellow (black and yellow, black and yellow) over black and gold in my preseason Superbowl matchup.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over Houston

I actually have the Texans circled on my hand-written version of my picks, but I then remembered a rule that I made a couple of weeks ago when the Colts were playing the Redskins…and I quote “don’t pick against Peyton in primetime games.” Well I picked against Peyton that night and I lost, not falling for that one…again. That’s my expert logic.

Enjoy the festivities, and if Trick or Treaters come by while your teams in the redzone, you don’t have to get the door, they’ll understand...

Last week: 9-5 (ohhhh yeaaahhh!!!!)