NBA Preview

"It's the most wonderful time...of the year..."

That is the only song I've been hearing in my head this week, because as you know, THE NBA'S BACK!!! After the most exciting offseason in NBA history, the 2010-2011 campaign has a lot on the line for a lot of players, coaches, and organizations. Here are the storylines I'll be following the closest...

Miami Thrice

You’ve seen the commercials, you’ve heard the songs, and you definitely have your own thoughts on “The Decision,” it’s time to end the speculation and put the product into effect. They looked pretty lost on Tuesday night against a team that’s been together for four seasons now, but that’ll happen when you’re a completely new team and two of your best players, rather the two players who you live and die with missed significant preseason games.

In his disappointing debut, LeBron still looked like the best player in the NBA and that’s what I think this season will show us above all else. I think Dwyane Wade will still be one of the 10 best players in the league, and that Chris Bosh will largely benefit from having two players on his team that command help defense, but Bosh has to be more aggressive. This team will not win if Chris Bosh can’t learn to dominate the paint on either end of the floor. LeBron didn’t win in Cleveland because he didn't really play with a talented big, Chris Bosh is as skilled as anyone above 6’10, but he has to assert himself and not fall into the mix of role players that make up 85% of Miami’s roster.

LeBron already played with a big jump-shooter in Antawn Jamison and it didn’t work. He needs players who will complement his skill set, he needs someone who can be more than effective near the basket, and he needs a shooting threat. Bosh and Wade aren’t either of those, which makes me think this team isn’t built to win a championship. The team sinks or swims with Bosh, and with the money he’s making, he better keep them afloat.

Did the Knicks assemble a real team?

I know a lot of people think the Knicks are still irrelevant, but for the money they paid their coach and the patience they’ve asked their fans to have, this has to be the year that things start to get better for New York basketball. Do they have the talent to make the playoffs? That’s arbitrational. But this is the team that Donnie Walsh and Mike D’Antoni have put together after flushing away all of the memories from Isiah Thomas’s tenure in NYC, and while they didn’t get a LeBron or a Carmelo (yet), if this team doesn’t show signs of improvement it’ll be worse than villains taking over Gotham.

I think that they have enough talent to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, and I think with the leadership of Amar’e Stoudemire and Ray Felton, Madison Square Garden will be electric this year. Don’t expect them to be rubbing elbows with the Heat or Celtics (or Bucks and Hawks for that matter), but do expect them to fight for a winning record for the first time since 2001. Rome wasn't build in one day...

The Carmelo Factor

Back to the previously mentioned Carmelo Anthony. Other than Kobe Bryant, I don’t think there’s a player in the Western Conference as significant as Melo is this season. If Melo stays in Denver I expect the Nuggets to remain amongst the elite teams in the conference. If Melo goes, Denver goes to the bottom. The reason this is so important is because I think Carmelo’s fate dictates the fate of not only the Nuggets, but the Suns, the Blazers, the Jazz, and any other team who may be fighting for the last couple of playoff spots in the Western Conference. Not to say that the 3 previously mentioned teams aren’t playoff teams, but the West is really, really deep this year and we’re going to see at least two good teams not get in.

Boston’s Age

If this team has championship aspirations it all starts and ends with Kevin Garnett. The Celtics made it to game 7 of the NBA Finals last season with a less than 100% Garnett and an injured Kendrick Perkins, and they looked a little flat at times in the playoffs. The window is only shrinking for the aging Celtics, but they do have very good, very experienced players to win a championship if they have a legit post-presence, and if you’ve watched Shaq or Jermaine O’Neal the last couple of seasons, you know it’s not going to be either of them.

The Celtics have a lot of high-end role players, and if they can get through the season in one piece they’re the best that the Eastern Conference has to offer. I can’t imagine that Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Doc Rivers all came back this year to do anything other than win a championship, and Rajon Rondo looks more like the best point guard in the league everytime he steps on a court. This may not be their last chance, but with the Heat only building around their big three, the Magic improving yearly, and the hype around the Knicks and Bulls, if the Big Three 2007 wants one more ring they have to take care of business this season.

Will the Hawks finally soar?

The Hawks resigned their franchise guy in Joe Johnson, but they didn’t extend Al Horford or Jamal Crawford who are the teams third and fourth best players. Will this fuel the two to work hard and try to earn big pay days, or will they mope around and allow other up-and-coming Eastern Conference teams to pass them by? Horford's one of the games youngest, brightest stars, and we've seen the worst of Jamal Crawford in the not so distant past.

They have a very good starting five, but they don’t really have a great leader and they don’t have elite depth. Every other team around them has been adding quality contributors and I don’t think Josh Powell isn’t going to get the job done for the ATL. With the improvement of the Southeast division, the Hawks probably won’t finish in the top five in the East. I say they don’t take that next step and make serious moves in the offseason.

The Wizards Dilemma

When I look at their roster I think to myself, this team has an outside shot at being the surprise team this year. Andray Blatche has done a great job with the garbage time he’s been given the last couple of years, Javale McGee’s raw as sushi but is developing at an alarming pace, I think John Wall’s going to be the real deal, they have talented veterans like Kirk Hinrich and Al Thornton, and they also have a guy named Gilbert Arenas who they still owe 80 million dollars over the next four seasons.

While the center-piece of the offense will be Wall, Arenas is most definitely the X-factor for this team. We’re talking about a guy who was one of the NBA’s best scorer’s just a few seasons ago, and he even averaged 22.6 points per game in his suspension-limited season in 2009-2010. When Gil’s happy and healthy he’s effective, unfortunately for the Wizards he doesn’t really seem to be happy or healthy right now. If Arenas can find it in him to take his job seriously (he only has 80 million reasons to) the Wizards are dangerous.

The Central Division

In my opinion there are only two teams to discuss here; the Bucks and the Bulls. Andrew Bogut or not, it’s kind of difficult to dislike Milwaukee heading into this season. Brandon Jennings had a very impressive rookie season, John Salmons has emerged as a very credible two-guard in the league, and between Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Carlos Delfino, they have wingmen who can defend, shoot, and even rebound. And then there’s Andrew Bogut.

One of the five best centers in the league, Bogut had a freak arm/hand injury in early April, sidelining him from the Bucks playoff run last year. He posted 15 points and 15 boards in the Bucks season debut, so there’s no reason to worry too much about him, but he has post help he’s never seen this year with the additions of Drew Gooden and rookie Larry Sanders. Sanders is a rebounding/defending machine who can be Tyrus Thomas minus the attempted offense. This kids all business on the boards and in the paint.

Aside from drafting Sanders, the Bucks also landed Darington Hobson, a versatile guard/forward with a silky smooth jump shot. While Hobson may not see the floor much as a rookie, he’ll be dueling with Chris Douglas-Roberts and Corey Maggette for minutes at the three, all very viable choices. Almost makes you forget about Michael Redd huh?

As impressive as the Bucks look on paper, everyone’s favorite pick in the Central seems to be Chicago. Pairing the unbelievable guard play of Derrick Rose with do-it-all power forward Carlos Boozer (when healthy) is one of the best duos in the league. Joakim Noah’s become one of the leagues best rebounders, and the energy he exerts on both sides of the court only fuels his more skilled teammates.

Although he’s known around the league as a shooter, Kyle Korver plays solid defense as well, and platooning with Keith Bogans and Ronnie Brewer will help the Bulls with the likes of Ray Allen and Paul Pierce as well as Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. The Bulls also have good depth up front being able to pull Taj Gibson, Kurt Thomas, James Johnson and rookie Omer Asik off the bench to help Boozer and Noah.

The Bottom of the East

Not in any order, but the Heat, Celtics, Magic, Hawks, Bulls, and Bucks are most definitely getting into the playoffs…who’s taking the last two spots? I mentioned the Wizards earlier but is it too soon for them to make a playoff push? I’m going to say the Knicks will take one spot because I’m an absolute homer, and I’m going to have to do a little process of elimination to figure out the other team.

I don’t think the Raptors will win many games this year, and I think the Cavs and Nets will be in the same boat. But when you look at the talent on the Pistons, the Sixers, and the Bobcats not one of them really stands out. I also expect the Pacers to be right there if Danny Granger can play close to 82 games.

I like the talent that the Pistons have, but I think they will have a hard time finding their best rotation and being effective with all of the talented perimeter players on their roster. They seem devoted to Rodney Stuckey at the point, but I think my guess is as good as John Kuester's as to who he likes at the 2 and 3 positions. I think the Sixers have the young talent to take the last spot in the East with Jrue Holiday being a real candidate for Most Improved Player of the Year. I don't really understand them getting rid of Sammy Dalembert, but I think they have so many athletic, skilled bodies that they have to play better than the rest of the least of the east.

The Growth of the Thunder

Oh what a difference one year makes. The Oklahoma City Thunder went from a 23 win team to a 50 win team in just one year, and while I doubt they’ll win 77 games this year, they’re the hottest, fastest growing franchise in maybe all of sports (other than the Jets, ha). The sky’s the limit for MVP-candidate Kevin Durant, and with a supporting cast of Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green this team is still growing.

What separates the Thunder from teams in the past like the Clippers of 2002, or the Bulls in 2005, is that they have role playing veterans and they love playing for their coach. Thabo Sefolosha, Serge Ibaka, and Nenad Kristic do a lot of the teams dirty work allowing their young stars to grow into their roles and further develop. James Harden, Eric Maynor, and Cole Aldrich will all contribute this season, and if they can develop as quickly as the big 3 in the starting lineup, this Thunder team can challenge for a championship sooner than people think. Buy some stock while you can because these guys are on fire.

Houston’s Health

It seems like the injury bug bites Yao Ming every season, so this is less directed at Yao than it is at their newest star, Kevin Martin. Martin and Aaron Brooks might be the best scoring backcourt in the league and they really put pressure on the opposing defense to stay on the perimeter and give Yao his space. I’m not expecting Yao to be in the picture come playoff time, but if both he and Martin are still going strong come May this is a dangerous, dangerous team.

Not only do the Rockets play defense, but they have players at every position who can shoot the ball. Brad Miller could start for the majority of teams in the league and Luis Scola is one of the most underrated players in the game today. A healthy Yao and Martin gets them 50 plus wins, losing either one of them makes Houston a borderline playoff team. We’ll see…

Magic’s Disappearing Act

Not like Hedo Turkoglu is the epitome of consistency, but where is Rashard Lewis? ‘Shard makes franchise player money, but he’s probably the teams third or fourth most important player due to his inconsistencies. Vince Carter isn’t exactly captain savior either, which makes me think this team doesn’t have it in them to make it back to the finals until they get a more respectable second option. Dwight Howard is a top-10 talent, but he isn’t exactly a go-to guy on the offensive end.

Every season this team thinks they’re getting closer, but I don’t think they’re making the moves to put them ahead of the Heat or Celtics, and maybe not even the Bulls. I don’t see how Quentin Richardson is an upgrade over Matt Barnes, at all, and Chris Duhon isn’t going to put anyone over the top come playoff time. They’re still one of the leagues best teams, but until Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter show up when it counts, this team isn’t winning anything.

Last dance for Dirk?

The Mavericks will probably never return to the dungeon of the Western Conference as long as Mark Cuban’s in charge, but Dirk Nowitzki’s chances at a ring are fading every day. The Mavs have the talent, they have a good coach, they have leadership, they just can’t seem to win when it matters. I should have known the Lakers were going to run the table again last Spring, but with their inconsistencies at the end of the season, I really thought last year could have been it for Dallas. They were bounced in the first round.

The Mavs went out and added Tyson Chandler and drafted shooting guard Dominique Jones, who will be the second rookie stud in a row for them after Roddy Beaubois tore it up last year. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry are aging, but they have a lot of guys still in their prime, and if Denver trades Melo the Mavs will make a big push this year.

Spurs Reloaded

San Antonio is another team that has looked older the last couple of seasons. Tim Duncan looks worn down, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili miss considerable amount of games every season, but this Spurs team has the talent to make up for their stars inadequacies.

George Hill has been one of the best bench players in the league the last two seasons, DeJuan Blair proved himself to be serviceable in his rookie campaign, and James Anderson, Tiago Splitter and Alonzo Gee make up the best rookie tandem any team in the league has to offer. Call me crazy but I think Tiago Splitter has the capability to really alleviate the stress placed on Tim Duncan during the regular season. He may not average a double-double but I see a lot of young Pau Gasol in him, and if he gets the playing time he will be the surprise rookie of 2010-2011.

Can the Grizzlies make the playoffs?

Yes, they can. Don’t get it twisted, they can, that doesn’t mean they will. What starting five would you rather have in a video game than the Grizzlies? Rudy Gay’s back, Zach Randolph’s in a contract year, and Marc Gasol may have been the surprise player of the year in 2009-2010. Even Mike Conley has shown signs of life. What about O.J. Mayo?

Mayo’s stats dropped off in every category but field goal percentage from his rookie to sophomore year. I know there’s such a thing as a sophomore slump, but it sure didn’t seem like Derrick Rose or Eric Gordon experienced them. O.J. could be one of the best guards in the NBA if he finds his role with the Grizzlies, which is part his fault and part Lionel Hollins fault. With the talent the Grizzlies have, they need to be able to play more team ball if they want to compete for a playoff spot. Every player going out and getting their own shots isn’t what wins games, it might make Gay and Randolph great fantasy options, but until this team plays like a cohesive unit they’ll sit with the Warriors and the Kings in the basement of the Western Conference.

most importantly...

Kobe’s Body

Kobe Bryant shot 6-24 from the field in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, he played a great game finishing with 23 points and 15 rebounds, but how is the greatest scorer in the league, probably since Michael Jordan retired, going to go 6 of 24 from the field in a championship deciding game? Because he was banged up.

Pau Gasol has proven to be more of a 1A than a 2 with the Lakers, but if Kobe has another injury plagued season like he did last year, I don’t think it’ll be enough for the threepeat (which if they do will be Phil Jackson’s FOURTH threepeat, wow, just wow). I think from top-to-bottom the Lakers have the best team in the league, and until any other team takes the league by storm it’s the Lakers championship to lose. They definitely won’t be playing without Kobe, but if the Celtics weren’t so stagnant in Game 7 we might not be talking about how great the Lakers are. In their defense, they played defense and found a way to come from behind and win the big game, but I think it’s a more top heavy league this season and that the Lake Show will need a fully functioning Kobe to get the job done this year.

lastly...

RIP Allen Iverson

Sorry for being so vulgar in my headline, but the fact that the Answer has been reduced to playing in Turkey just drives me crazy. He didn't seem capable of playing in the NBA after his brief stint last season, and maybe he just wasn't able to get himself together and make a team feel he's worth a shot at this stage of his career. Scoring prowess aside, his bad/non-caring attitude combined with his incapability of being a teammate, as well as his problems off the court, have finally gotten him blackballed from the NBA. The greatest scorer pound-for-pound in NBA history. I guess you couldn't have expected picket fences at the end of his journey, but I didn't think he'd go out like this.

There are plenty of other things to look out for, like the freak show that is Blake Griffin, the revenge of Chris Paul, and the never ending joke that is David Kahn (come on L'Wolves, there's some real talent up there). Expect lots of NBA posts over the next 10 months (lots of college hoops too), but for now I leave you with my so unsure but I'm doing it cause it's the cool thing to do...

Predictions:

CONFERENCE FINALS - Lakers over Nuggets (Mavs if Melo gets traded)

Celtics over Heat

NBA CHAMPS - Celtics over Lakers

MVP - LeBron James

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - Blake Griffin

SIXTH MAN - Corey Maggette or Jamal Crawford

COACH OF THE YEAR - Scott Skiles

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Josh Smith

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER OF THE YEAR - Jrue Holiday

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR -Yao Ming

First Team All-NBA

G - Kobe Bryant G - Chris Paul F -LeBron James F -Kevin Durant C - Dwight Howard

First Team All Defense

G - Rajon Rondo G - Thabo Sefolosha F - Josh Smith F - Ron Artest C - Dwight Howard

First Rookie Team

John Wall, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins, Wesley Johnson, Landry Fields