Week 4 Picks

I’m abandoning the D’Antoni style pick ems for now, there’s just too much to say to explain my picks…especially after going an impressive 9-7 last weeks. Alright, so 9-7 isn’t that great, but it’s good enough to get you into the playoffs most seasons…alright on to the picks

(Lines as of Friday evening, home team in caps, picking against spreads)

TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Denver

I really don’t like Denver much at all. Kyle Orton played his best game in blue and orange last week and they still lost by 14 to the Colts. The Bronco’s have absolutely no running game and the Titans have the fifth best pass defense in the league. The Titans have looked good so far and know they can’t lose to teams they’re better than if they want to make the playoffs in their division. Josh McDaniels may have to release his ball and juice (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/25/tebow-mcdaniels-made-instant-connection/) and go with a new quarterback before he loses his job.

Baltimore (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH

I’m loving the Steelers this year, I think they’re the best team in football and I think they will play for the Superbowl. However, I think this week Baltimore cashes in on the big talk checks that were written for them before the season started. The Ravens have lost three of their last four against Pittsburgh, the only game they won was the one game Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in. Look for the Ravens to take advantage again Sunday and give Mike Tomlin a reassuring reason to get Roethlisberger back in ASAP.

Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND

The Browns showed heart on the road against Baltimore last week, but this team still stinks. The potential for Jake Delhomme to come back is the best thing they have going for them…that’s like looking forward to going home and playing solitaire. Not to hate on solitaire, but depending on a washed up quarterback to make your team respectable is bleak to put it nicely. Carson Palmer has a chance to get it together against a weak spot in their tough schedule.

GREEN BAY (-14) over Detroit

I hate taking such big favorites, but they’re at home, they’re coming off of a loss, and Detroits just waiting to get on the field with St. Louis next week to get their impossible first quarter of a season together. I mean, does Roger Goodell have a heart? At Chicago, home against the Eagles, at Minnesota, at Green Bay. I know they have to play Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay twice each, but to load up such a young and fragile-minded team just isn’t fair to them. OK, I’m over it, but Green Bay’s still going to smoke these guys.

NEW ORLEANS (-13.5) over Carolina

After a tough loss to the Falcons I’m still sold that the Saints are the class of the NFC. They actually would have won had they not been the latest of good teams to be plagued with bad kickers, I mean I could probably knock down a 29 footer. I digress. Carolina’s bad, New Orleans is still great, I’ll take them by two scores plus.

San Francisco (+7) over ATLANTA

I know, I keep picking the 49ers. This is it for them. If they don’t win or cover I give up on them. I mean it. I’ll pick the Rams, Cardinals, even the Raiders if San Francisco can’t show up in this game. Not to take anything away from Atlanta, but to start a season 0-4, even with their easy schedule, isn’t something a division winner does. Atlanta should come out fired up at home after beating the Saints…you know, why am I even going with San Fran?

Seattle (-1) over ST. LOUIS

I picked against Seattle last week, after picking them the week before, and I was wrong both times. I guess the moral of the story is pick anyone instead of the Rams? Steven Jackson got hurt last week, and somebody has to win the NFC West for God’s sakes! Seattle has enough talent to do it if San Francisco won’t, and they cannot lose to the Rams.

NY Jets (-5.5) over BUFFALO

Ok, my last few picks haven’t exactly been made with rational decision making, more process of elimination. This one’s a no-brainer. The Jets really got up for their last two games after living up to the naysayers expectations against Baltimore. I know Mark Sanchez is still a question mark, and that’s fair, but if he’s had such success against the two good teams in the division, it’s fair to expect him to play well against the Bills minus Terence McGee. They’ll have Braylon Edwards for a full game, and there’s no way Brian Schottenheimer will allow Sanchez to throw 5 picks again! This really is a statement game for the Jets. Heading into Minnesota for Monday Night Football with a 3-1 record would be a real confidence builder.

JACKSONVILLE (+7) over Indianapolis

Last season the Colts beat the Jaguars in both of their meetings, by a combined a 6 points. Jacksonville laid an egg last week against Michael Vick and although it’s Peyton Manning, they’ll be at ease not chasing that dog (ha…ha) around this Sunday. And Maurice Jones-Drew has 0 touchdowns at this point. He’s run for at least 90 yards in his last four games against the Colts. Jacksonville will try to control the clock, and will definitely keep this game within 7.

Houston (-3) over OAKLAND

The Raiders have the second best pass defense in the NFL this season, but the 24^th best run defense. Too bad for Oakland the Texans are as deadly on the ground as they are through the air. Houston’s a little banged up, but they, like Tennessee, know that they have to win games against the trash of the league if they want to contend for a playoff spot. The Raiders are on the right track, minus their owner, coach, and quarterback, but at least the Jamarcus Russell era’s over. Sorry Chez.

Arizona (+8.5) over SAN DIEGO

I hate this game more than any other game this week. I really don’t like the Cardinals, and I may pick against them almost every week, but the Chargers have disappointed me pretty much every game this year. They easily won their only other game at home, but I think this one could get ugly. I think a lot of points will be scored and that Arizona will stay within eight and a half points.

Washington (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA

I keep going against the Iggles, and I think I have to this week too, as a personal pick. I know it’s unprofessional, but I like Donovan McNabb so much and I think this is the most important game he’s ever played in. I think his team likes him enough that they want to win this game for him, and I think the Redskins are about as good as the Eagles if not better. Ron Mexico really has been the x-factor for the Eagles, and he’s been pretty damn good, but the Eagles should beat Detroit and Jacksonville. The Redskins got trapped last week, but they showed up for their first two games, and I don’t think they’ll miss this afternoon delight.

Chicago (+3.5) over NY GIANTS

What reason do I have to pick the Giants? The defense hasn’t been there and the Bears are trying to be this season’s new offense juggernaut. The Giants really need this one, and being at home under the big lights can’t work against them, but the Bears defense looks legit and the Giants O-line hasn’t been overly impressive. Eli’s been good, but he needs to put the team on his back and utilize his talented receivers, and stop throwing left-handed flip passes on the goal line. Idiot.

New England (-1) over MIAMI

Really big game for both teams. Loser starts the season 1-2 in the division, so who wants it more? I think the Pats have a good enough front 7 to contain the Dolphins, and if Sanchez looked like college Mark Sanchez against the Fins, Tom Brady’s going to look like 2007 Tom Brady against them. I’m just not buying the Dolphins.

Enjoy and feel free to post your picks and try to go one-on-one with the penman (not my nickname but it makes sense, right?).