Lines as of Friday afternoon, home teams in Caps
BUFFALO (+3) over Chicago (in Toronto, Canada)
Bills are getting closer, the Bears are sloppy, it’s not like they have much of a home-field advantage in Toronto, but they’re just due.
HOUSTON (+2.5) over San Diego
Andre Johnson’s playing with a bummed ankle, but the Chargers still have a lot to prove even after beating a very good Titans team last week. One thing’s for sure, we’ll find out how good the Chargers defense really is going up against one of the more dynamic offenses in football.
New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA
The Panthers are terrible, and somehow only lost by two the last time these two teams met. The Saints are coming off of a huge win and have to crush teams like the Panthers as they try to defend what’s still their championship.
Arizona (+8) over MINNESOTA
I know the Cards are bad, but they can definitely cover 8 points against a struggling Vikings team.
Tampa Bay (+8.5) over ATLANTA
Again, I think 9 points is too much for the home favorite to cover. The Bucs’ record may be better than their talent but I think they’re too well coached to lose that bad to a team they see so much of.
NY Jets (-4) over DETROIT
I know I know, the Lions are the best 2-5 team in the NFL, they’re still a 2-5 team. The Jets played their best game of the season after they looked so bad in their season opener, I expect a similar performance in a hostile environment against an up-and-coming Lions team. I just feel like the Jets D will get the best of Matt Stafford and hopefully Schotty and Rex will call a better game for Sanchez than they did last week.
Miami (+5.5) over BALTIMORE
I think Baltimore wins this one, but Miami burned me last week for not picking them. Going Dolphins to cover.
CLEVELAND (+4) over New England
Going out on a limb here. I know there’s no such thing as a trap game for a Belichick coached team, especially not if they’re playing against and Eric Mangini coached team, but I don’t think the Pats are as good as their record. I’m going to get slaughtered by Patriots fans, and I’ll apologize if I’m wrong, but this is my blog so I’m going Browns!
SEATTLE (+7) over NY Giants
Another unpopular pick I’m sure, but I gotta go with the home team here. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Giants are the way better team in this game, especially with Charlie freaking Whitehurst starting for the Seahawks, but winning by a TD at Qwest Field is no easy task. I don’t like the Giants flying across country, and special teams really has to be on top of their game for the G-Men. I’m pretty sure the Giants will win this game, but I don’t think they will be 7 or more.
Kansas City (+1) over OAKLAND
I want to pick the Raiders so bad in this one, but they’re just not the better team. Their number one receiving option is Darius Heyward-Bay and the Chiefs are such a better team than either Denver or Seattle. I’m tempted to say the Raiders are the hottest team in football, and playing this game at home will definitely be incentive enough to play as well as they have the last two weeks, but the Chiefs are a very grounded team and will end the Raiders win streak.
Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
I don’t think the Colts D can keep up with Vick, but I don’t think anyone can stop Peyton right now. The 28th ranked Colts run defense needs to be better against Philly, but I don’t see the Eagles getting big stops against the red-hot Colts.
Dallas (+7.5) over GREEN BAY
See, this is a spread I like for the Cowboys. There’s no way the Cowboys are even in this game if Green Bay’s pass rush is as effective as they were against the Jets, but things can only get better for Dallas, and losing by more than a touchdown this week against the Packers isn’t in the cards for them. The Cowboys have the 10th best pass defense in football, which isn’t great, but should be good enough to not get slaughtered by a banged up Packers receiving core. I can’t believe I’m doing it but I’m going Cowboys.
Pittsburgh (-5) over CINCINNATI
I think the Steelers might struggle a little bit to find their identity on offense, but there’s no way they can struggle the way the Bengals have been. They’ve lost 4 straight, and have the Steelers, the Colts, the Jets, and the Saints in four of their next five games. Season over. Not to mention I think the Steelers are the best team in football, and I can’t see them losing back-to-back games.
Last week: 6-7 (not good)
1 comment:
So this week I will go down the line with your picks and make a snide comment about where I owned you:
Buffalo +3: Like kissing your sister with a tie...
Houston +2.5: I was selling San Diego big especially without Gates and I was drinking the Texans KoolAid again. Schaub has been a big disappointment this season so far.
New Orleans -6.5: I don't think there was an easier pick on the schedule this week than this one.
Arizona +8: Don't you love how much of a big deal the media is making about a comeback overtime win at home against the Cardinals?!
Tampa +8.5: While they might not be where Raheem says they are, I felt that 8.5 was way too many even against a tough ATL squad.
Detroit +4: This hurts...I want to say I told you so but I should be gloating a victory right now. I think it hurts more because I was there and I saw all fall apart right in front of my eyes. That being said, the Lions are 7-1 versus the spread this year. I'm worried that they might get embarrassed by Buffalo this week without Stafford...again. Matters.
Miami +5.5: Here's me...Miami is so good on the road. Baltimore has had some close ones against good teams. Easy pick right?
New England -4: Did that just happen?!
Seattle +7: Love me some home underdogs...oh wait the Seahawks suck and the G-Men are for real.
Oakland -1: Gut said KC...heart said Raiders. Silver and Black are back?
Indy +3: Wait you wanted to give Peyton Manning 3 points? Even though they lost the game there was no way Indy wasn't going to cover this one.
Green Bay -7.5: Yes, Dallas is that bad. They have been quitting for weeks and this was the cherry on top. Bye bye Wade.
Cincy +5: I really thought they could turn their season around with a win at home vs. Pitt. Back to the Bungles...hey Cincy, How's the view from behind the Browns in the standings?
A respectable 7-5-1 this week to your 6-6-1 Mr. Mintz. Early picks this week with a Thursday night game. I should have mine up by Friday the latest.
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