Welcome readers to an early edition of my picks. Thursday night football is back tonight with what could be a Superbowl preview. Personally, halfway through the season I can’t really see Atlanta getting there, but the NFC is up for grabs and Atlanta’s about as good as anyone in that conference.
I’d also like to really quickly thank Wilk for posting his picks against mine. Win, lose, or draw I’m excited to have some reader interaction and more than encourage it from anyone who may come across my picks. There’s no money on the line obviously, just pride, which over the last couple of weeks I’ve managed to diminish some of with how much parity there is in this league. I digress…here are my picks:
(Lines as of Thursday Morning, home teams in caps)
ATLANTA (-1) over Baltimore
I toggled picks over and over again on this one, and it’s a great way to start the NFL’s Thursday night series. We have two very good teams coming off of a very short week, the Ravens have the slight edge on defense with the Falcons having the slight edge on offense. Ultimately what it comes down to for me is that Matt Ryan has won 13 straight home games and in my opinion is the better quarterback in the matchup with Joe Flacco. Flacco has a chance to even the playing fields against a less than stellar Falcons secondary, but I think the home advantage will help the roughed up Falcons offense pull this one out.
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Cincinnati
The good news for Cincinnati: this is the end of their four-game stretch against Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis. The bad news for Cincinnati: they lost to the Browns and Bucs before they lost the first three of their tough stretch. If anybody’s wondering how T.O. and Ochocinco have television shows (yes plural) just look at their sidelines. T.O. whines, Ocho cries (literally) and poor Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer have to shoulder the losing. I don’t expect a different Bengals team to all of a sudden show up in Indy, but I do expect the same Peyton Manning we’ve been drooling over for a decade to show up and cover.
Houston (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars three game home win-streak against the Texans has to come to an end Sunday. Jacksonville has the 28th ranked pass defense, and although Arian Foster’s playing MVP-worthy football, the Texans can still air it out. While the Texans defense has proven to be a joke, especially against the passing game, they’re coming off of two tough losses in games they were in down the stretch against very good teams. Contrary to popular believe, the Jaguars are not a very good team.
MIAMI (+2) over Tennessee
This is a very tough one, or maybe it isn’t and I’m just a real homer. I don’t think Chad Pennington is really a starting QB in the NFL at this point in his career, but I do think that he’s a gamer and that he’ll bring something to the table for the Dolphins Sunday. He’s been down and out before, and has found a way to come back strongly and really lead a team. I think Tennessee is a better team, but that the Fins either win or cover.
CHICAGO (+1) over Minnesota
I just don’t see how a team that is literally in the process of overthrowing their coach can come out and win this one on the road. The Bears aren’t that good of a team, at all, and I think that the Vikings probably have the more talented defense, but coaching and quarterbacks usually win in the NFL and while the Bears have Lovie Smith, the Vikings have someone who has no control of his team. Brett Favre’s coming off of his most impressive performance of the season but in this game I think he and Jay Cutler are a coin flip. My gut wants to take the Vikings, but my insight says Bears…we’ll see which force prevails.
Detroit (+3) over BUFFALO
Haven’t the Lions proved enough times this season that it doesn’t matter who their quarterback is? Shaun Hill has proven start after start to be one of the most dependable backups in the league, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get a look from some team next year. Alright my love fest for Hill aside, the nerve of Vegas to make a winless team 3 point favorites against one of the most surging teams in football astonishes me. Despite giving up a late lead to the Jets (the 6-2 Jets I remind you, for numerous reasons), the Lions have a very good pass rush and will overwhelm the Bills bad offensive line.
NY Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND
It’s arguable that the Browns are the hottest team in the league, and after watching them play last week I’m sold that they can hang with any team they play against…which makes this a scary pick seeing how the Jets have had to really squeak out their last 3 wins. Colt McCoy has been making plays with his legs and his arm, and if the Jets pass rush isn’t top-notch they better be ready to stop the run, because McCoy is mobile and Peyton Hillis is tied for third in the NFL with 7 rushing TD’s and is a real power back. But the Jets have been taking advantage of Eric Mangini since he was run out of town and I have to go with my 6 and 2 Jets to pull this one out.
TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Carolina
I have nothing good to say about the Panthers so I’m going to leave them alone.
Kansas City (-1) over DENVER
They run the ball and they play defense, how could the Chiefs possibly lose this one? The Broncos have the worst rush defense in the league and the Chiefs have the top ranked rush offense, which translates into the Chiefs will dominate the time of possession and the Broncos are in for a long day.
St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO
Frank Gore has run for over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns in three of his last four games against the Rams, but this is a different, rebuilt Rams defense. With little notoriety, the Rams have a top-10 defense, and in all likelihood the offensive rookie of the year. What do the 49ers have? An overrated defense and a well below average offense with Troy Smith taking the snaps. The NFC West is still up for grabs, and while the Niners look like paper champions, they have a way better shot than the Cowboys or Vikings (other disappointments in wayyyy tougher divisions) at making a run at their division. It’s too bad they won’t.
ARIZONA (-3) over Seattle
I picked the Cardinals for the first time last week and I liked it so much that I’m going to do it again! Just kidding, I really don’t like either of these teams but Arizona really had the Vikings backs against the wall and look the best they’ve looked all season with Derek Anderson. Both of these teams stink.
Dallas (+13.5) over NY GIANTS
I’m really sorry Giants fans, I know you’re sick of me picking against them. Let me admit, they’re the class of the NFC to my complete and utter shock. I don’t know that any team in football gets to the QB the way that they do, and they’re very, very well-rounded on offense. While the Cowboys didn’t get up to play for Wade Phillips this season, I doubt they’ll get up to play in remembrance of him, but I think Jason Garrett has this team more focused than they’ve been all season. I just think 13.5 is a lot of points, and while this game has the potential to be a blowout I can’t see the Cowboys losing by more than ten at worst.
New England (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH
I think the Steelers are the much better team in this one, but that the Patriots have a knack of playing their best against top-notch talent. The Steelers defense is just filthy, but their offense hasn’t quite clicked yet. Either we’ll see them still working out the kinks against an overmatched, well-coached defense, or they’ll get it and make this game a blowout…which most likely won’t happen seeing how the Patriots haven’t lost back-to-back games by double digits since weeks 15 and 16 of the 2002 season. Another battle between gut and insight…and once again I’m going insight.
Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON
Here’s what we may see: McNabb responds to Shanahan’s benching by lighting up his former team and proving his doubters wrong. Here’s what I think we will see, McNabb and Redskins offense look average at best and thriving Eagles continue to roll.
Thanks for reading, feel free to post your picks, and stay posted as we await the results between Jared’s gut and Jared’s insight…
Last week : 6-6-1 (I can’t be getting beat on my own blog!)
2 comments:
My theme for this week is stay humble. A one game lead on Mr. Mintz is nothing to get too excited about so I am going to stay humble and pick some winners.
ATL -1: Loved Matty Ice at home as well. Roddy White is the truth even though he had two very costly, could have been game changing, drops down the stretch.
Cincinnati +7: Something tells me this will be TOcho's last stand and the Bungles will keep it close. Even though they lost to the Steelers they are going to come out with a nothing to lose attitude and light up the score board. Did Philly expose some of Indy's weaknesses and injuries last week? I like Indy to win but not to cover.
Houston +1.5: I don't know why I like this pick. Schaub has been nothing but disappointing this year. This feels like a trap, but Houston should win.
Tennessee -2: Chad Pennington is going to get owned. Randy Moss has scored in every opening game at a new team and this will energize CJ who is going to beast on the Dolphins who severely stuggle at home for some weird reason.
Chicago +1: Every one has stopped talking about DA Bears and they are going to take it personally. I expect big things from the Chicago front 7 and they are going to have Favre wishing (again) that he didn't come back this year. Minnetonka barely beat the Cardinals last week...at home...and they were annointed by the media. Give me the Monsters of the Midway to win...handily.
Detroit +3: So my Lions have won some people some money this year. And it would be typical Lions to go on the road and give a winless Bills team their first win of the season. I fully expect to be disappointed here and as a Lions fan I'm used to it. The reason why the Lions are underdogs is because they haven't won a road game since 2007. I really don't want to lose to the Bills, but Harvard boy has been legit lately. Lions win 35-34 on a missed field goal with the clock running out by the Bills. Wide Right Norwood!!!
Jets -3: The difference here will be the strength of the Jets front 7. Hillis will be limited and the secondary will look like beasts picking off McCoy at least twice. I like the Jets in a roll. Do you really think Rex is going to lose his brother?
Tampa -6.5: Carolina is not a good football team. Tampa will roll.
Kansas City -1: The KC running attack will go crazy on em in a close game. Jones & Charles will put the team on their backs in the 4th quarter.
St. Louis +6: I don't know why the niners are so favored here. Again, this feels like a trap, but even if the 49ers win, it won't be by 6 points.
Arizona -3: What a terrible game. What a terrible division. I fully expect Seattle to win this game by 32 points, but I'm picking the Cardinals just the same.
Giants -13.5: G-Men roll. Yes, Dallas is that terrible. Giants win 35-17.
Pittsburgh -4.5: New England's slide continues and Pittsburgh learns something from the Browns?! Mendenhall goes crazy and Pittsburgh wins by 10.
Washington +3: I'm gonna go with McNabb rises to the occasion and proves everyone wrong again. He seems to do this every time he is pushed into a corner. DC will be rocking on a Monday night and I like the Redskins to pull the upset at home.
Hopefully I stay humble enough to win a few games this week. We agree on 10 out of 14 games so we will probably have another tight week. Wilk...Out
ohhhhh yaaaahhh 10-4... time for me to catch lightning in a bottle
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