Week 11 Picks

So I didn't get my picks up in time for the Thursday night game this week, sorry guys, but I'm going to keep it real and tell you all that I had the Dolphins to cover. If you don't know yet, they lost by 16 at home and were nowhere near covering at any point in the evening. The Bears were very impressive but I can't help but question the Dolphins strategy for this one. They didn't take any pressure off of Tyler Thigpen as they ran the ball 13 times. With a banged up offensive line and a rather inexperienced quarterback going up against a fierce pass rush, why would you make the night so difficult on your offense? Just mind boggling.

Here are my picks for the rest of Week 11...

(Lines as of Saturday morning, home time in caps)

Oakland (+7.5) over PITTSBURGH

All signs point towards the Steelers in this one. They’re coming off of a tough home loss, they have the best run defense and the Raiders are a run heavy team, and they have back-to-back road games coming up next. However, I think the Raiders cover in this one. Riding a 3-game win streak into their bye, the Raiders seem to have been clicking on all cylinders. Even though they’re being led by the quarterback chosen by Al Davis not Tom Cable, Oakland is +3 in the turnover battle the last three weeks as Jason Campbell has a 5 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. They’re taking care of the football and giving everyone their best shot, so I like the Raiders to lose by less than 8 points.

Houston (+6.5) over NY JETS

The Jets are killing me. They should have lost to the Browns about 5 times last week, but somehow they found a way to get the ball back and operate confidently. The one thing I’m hearing a lot of is that if the Jets are 7-2 playing the way they’ve played the last five weeks or so, the NFL is in a lot of trouble because they’re only going to get better. With that said, I think they struggle to cover but should beat the banged up Texans come Sunday.

Baltimore (-11) over CAROLINA

The Panthers just have nothing going for them on the offensive side of the ball. The O-line has been very disappointing and their running backs just haven’t gotten acclimated this season, and it’s already week 11. They struggle on defense almost as much as they struggle on offense, and unfortunately for them the Ravens really excel at both. I dislike 11-point home dogs but I dislike the Panthers even more.

Washington (+7) over TENNESSEE

Last week I went 2-0 on insight over gut picks, and I’m going to come out and take my guts side instead here. After how bad the Redskins have looked the last two games there’s no reason to think they can hang with one of the NFL’s toughest teams. But I believe in Donovan McNabb and I don’t think Mike Shanahan is as awful as he’s made his team look the last couple of times out. There’s still a lot of talent on the Redskins and their offense could get back Clinton Portis to team up with Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams to form a legitimate running threat.

Detroit (+6) over DALLAS

The Lions seem to cover every week, the end.

Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA

I wish the Vikings would just go away already. It’s disgusting that a team that’s played so poorly all season still gets as much attention as they do. Brett Favre still has his moments and it’s a real intriguing story that the team plays well sometimes even in spite of Brad Childress. No, it’s an annoying story about a bunch of underachievers and an owner who has been too passive to fire a coach who has been less than effective for sometime now. It just bothers me to see a franchise with so much talent just completely miss out on their window for success because they’re too stubborn to change the coach. The Packers are the real team that deserves attention in the NFC North and they’re going to light up their rivals on Sunday.

CINCINNATI (-5) over Buffalo

The defending AFC North champs have lost 6-straight heading into Buffalo to play a team they haven’t beaten in almost 22 years, how could you not like the Bengals in this one? I’ve been picking the Bills lately, but I just can’t see the Bengals losing this one, they have too much talent to lose to both good and bad teams.

Cleveland (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

As I mentioned earlier the Browns should have beaten the Jets about 5 times when the two teams faced off in the Buddy Bowl last week, the Jets found a way to win because that’s what good teams do, the Jaguars aren’t quite the Jets. I continue to be impressed by Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis, and while I think the Jags are a gritty, efficient, rather lucky team, I think the Browns have been coming out and playing hard and will be the better team Sunday.

KANSAS CITY (-8) over Arizona

You think Todd Haley’s going to lose to his loser former team? Although the weapons have changed for the Cardinals, Haley knows the oppositions best players and will gameplan against their weaknesses to come back after last weeks embarrassing loss to the Broncos. The Cards don’t do much right and the Chiefs are about as by the book of a ground-and-pound team as you’ll find in the league today.

NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) over Seattle

Reggie Bush is still questionable, but the Saints superiority doesn’t seem to be any more. While the Falcons have been the talk of the NFC South, the Saints have quietly gotten back up to 6-3 after a shocking home loss to the Browns. The Saints have proven to be resilient even without some of their key players (Pierre Thomas, Darren Sharper, Bush) and I expect them to keep impressing against a Seahawks team that has been outscored 46-92 in their last three games.

Atlanta (-3) over ST. LOUIS

I’m always rooting for the Rams, but I think we’ll find out just how far away they are from being an above average team on Sunday when they play against a legitimately good team for the first time all season (sorry Chargers, you weren’t even close at the time). I think the Rams could be in this one with their good defense and ever improving offense, but the Falcons get it done on both sides of the field.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Are you really going to believe that Troy Smith is righting the ship in San Francisco? I mean it would be a great story and it’s not like there’s anyone I’m more inclined to root for in the NFC West, but you shouldn’t start a season 1-6 and still be in the running for a playoff spot just three weeks later. The Bucs have taken care of business going 6-0 against teams with sub .500 records, and I believe they’ll continue to do so on the road against the Niners.

Indianapolis (+4) over NEW ENGLAND

I’m doing it again, going gut over insight. I don’t care who you put on the same field as Peyton Manning, I like him in the big games and I’m going to take him against a team that I’m not convinced is royalty just yet. That’s not even me being a Jets homer and hating on the Patriots, it’s me really liking Manning and knowing that the Pats are vulnerable. Offensively speaking the Patriots matched up great against the Steelers, they have three very gifted Tight Ends who catch, block, do everything, and there wasn’t anything the Steelers could do about the battle of the middle of the field. The Colts have found their identity on offense (like 10 years ago) and even though the defense is a work in progress to say the least, they’re exceeding expectations and are doing an incredible job in the secondary.

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over NY Giants

I’m not going to talk about Michael Vick extensively because everyone else in America has already done that this week. The most ridiculous thing I’m hearing is that he’s a wild card, that you don’t know what you’re going to get out of Vick on any given Sunday. I know you’re going to get a guy with incredible wheels who also has the best completion percentage of his career this season. The Giants are very strong up front on the defensive side of the ball, but Vick will exploit their back seven if he can get out of the pocket, which if you didn’t know is his strength. The Giants offensive line is also very beat up and if you don’t win the wars on the trenches then you lose the game. I like the Eagles this week.

Denver (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO

The Broncos got their first 100-yard rusher last week against a very good Chiefs team, and now that they’re not so one-dimensional they’re actually a threat to the rest of the league. I think 9.5 is too many points to give to a team still playing with practice squad players. I’m very impressed by the Chargers ability to beat the Titans and the Texans, but divisional games are never that easy and ten points is a lot.