Week 13 Picks

Week 13 started with a bang as Michael Vick rebounded from his tough outing last week to have a monster second half, and carry his Eagles over the Texans on Thursday night. Houston led 24-20 with less than a minute to go in the third, but the fourth quarter was a completely different ball game. Vick threw for 106 yards and a score, and also ran in a short touchdown as the Eagles offense had their way with the Texans.

Eagles 34, Texans 24. Gary Kubiaks job security is not looking too good, and I start the week 0-1.

I know I skipped out on last week’s picks, but I’m back in full effect for Week 13, coming off back-to-back double-digit victory weeks. I’m going to post my picks for Sundays games now, and come back Monday to really weigh in on my Superbowl (that is, until the Jets make it to their date in Dallas in early February).

(Lines as of early Saturday afternoon, home team in caps)

Buffalo (+5.5) over MINNESOTA

This really feels like a stupid pick. The Vikings are hot, and motivated playing for Leslie Frazier, and Sidney Rice is coming back into form. This is also Brett Favre’s final month of his NFL career, unless the Vikes surge and make the playoffs (just kidding). I always find a way to write about why the team I’m picking to lose should win, but the Vikings could be without Adrian Peterson, and the Bills have been playing their tails off. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for over 250 yards in four of the teams last six games, and running back Fred Jackson has found the end-zone in four straight games. Steve Johnson needs to put last week behind him, and the Bills need to continue doing what they’re doing, and that’s staying in every game. They’re 2-4 since the bye week with a point differential in those six games of +8. Lets go Bills.

Cleveland (+5) over MIAMI

For some odd reason the Dolphins are an awful home team. I’m not overly impressed with the Browns being led by Jake Delhomme (especially after a 1-point squeak-out against the Panthers, Delhomme’s former team and probably the worst team in football). Delhomme threw for no scores and two picks for a 64.6 QB rating week 12, and the Browns really had a good thing going with Colt McCoy. Brandon Marshall is questionable for the game, but Chad Henne is questionable at the quarterback position, and I think the Browns are simply playing better football right now.

Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE

This game is a land mine. I think it’ll either be close, or the Titans will blow them out. There are just too many question marks with the Titans offense and the Jaguars have been so consistent. Best-case scenario for Tennessee is Kerry Collins is ready to go, and then that he doesn’t play awful, which has often been the case with him this season. The Jaguars hung in tough with the Giants last week, but were just overwhelmed by one of the best pass rushes in the league. It all depends which Titans team shows up. If Kenny Britt and Kerry Collins are in top form they look a lot better than they would with Rusty Smith, but the Jags will show up either way, so I gotta go Jacksonville to cover this one.

KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Denver

I almost had a fourth straight road-dog in this one, for some reason I always want to pick Denver against a large spread, but I tend to lose when I do that. Todd Haley wants this one after refusing to shake Broncos coach Josh McDaniels hand after Denver won their first matchup, but McDaniels is a gamer and will probably have his guys ready in his defense (it’s too bad neither of these guys actually get to step on the field). The Chiefs seem to be flying high after spanking both Arizona and Seattle, and Denvers down and pretty close to out. I think this is the game where the Chiefs really establish themselves and send a message to San Diego that the playoff spot is theirs.

NY GIANTS (-7) over Washington

This is a game that I would love to pick the Redskins in, but insight is going to overrule gut on this one. The Redskins are hurting on both lines of the ball, and the Giants, despite injuries have found a way to still dominate up-front, especially on defense, especially where the Redskins are very, very thin. McNabb seems to play well against the Giants, but the Giants have had the Skins number the last couple of seasons and I expect that to continue on Sunday.

Chicago (-4.5) over DETROIT

Drew Stanton’s starting for the Lions, and I think the Bears are one of the best teams in the NFC right now. The defense has been getting better every week, and Jay Cutler is coming off of one of the best games of his career. I’m sorry Lions, it’s not me, it’s Drew.

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over San Francisco

Brian Westbrook carried the load for the Niners on Monday Night Football, put can he do it against a real defense this week? Same question has to be asked for leader of the new school Troy Smith, who hasn’t played a cold-weather game yet this season. The Packers have passed the eye-ball test so far this year, and need a big win against an underachieving team that has been beaten by every good team they’ve played this season.

New Orleans (-6.5) over CINCINNATI

The Saints are surging and getting healthy at the right time. The Saints have scored 30+ in their last three games, and are playing against a team that gives up 26 points a game (26^th in the NFL). The Bengals look dead while the Saints look very much alive since losing to both the Browns and the Cardinals earlier in the season.

Atlanta (-3) over TAMPA BAY

All the analysts are talking that if there’s a game for them to lose and still be comfortable it’s this game. They’re 9-2 with two games left against Carolina, a game in Seattle, and a home game against the Saints. Everyone knows they’re a better home team than a road team, so why not lose this one? Because they know the Saints are going to catch them if they don’t keep winning, and if they lose this week and somehow let the 12^th man get to them in Seattle, their playoff spot could be Tampa’s playoff spot. As surprising as the Bucs have been this season, they’re 7-0 against teams with losing records, and you guessed it, 0-4 against teams with winning records. That previously mentioned 9-2 record is a very winning record and the Falcons are a very good team, the Bucs are still at least a year away.

Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO

The Chargers want to make me pay for never picking them, so they’re going to keep covering on these games where they’re given outlandish point spreads. I don’t think the Raiders are bad enough to lose by two scores to the Chargers, and I don’t think the Chargers are going to win out, which is what they’re going to have to do if they want to make the playoffs. I still think they’ll beat the Raiders, but not by 13 or more.

SEATTLE (-5) over Carolina

And here’s your stinker. Matt Hasselbeck has had two 100+ QB ratings in three of his last games and he gets his top receiver in Mike Williams back to go against…THE WORST TEAM IN THE NFL. Carolina’s awful, they’re excited to get their struggling rookie quarterback back. I hope this game turns into a shootout, but I expect it’s a snooze-fest unless you’re a diehard Seahawks or Panthers fan, in which case, I’m very sorry.

St. Louis (-3.5) over ARIZONA

I’m supposed to believe that the Cardinals are going to come back and defend their home turf after the way they performed on Monday night, and the way their “leader” performed afterwards? They have a terrible quarterback and the Rams have an improving defense, not to mention a legitimate leader in probably Rookie of the Year Sam Bradford. The Rams haven’t won five games in a season since 2006, and I expect them to get to six sooner rather than later.

Dallas (+5) over INDIANAPOLIS

This is a really tough game. The Colts 4-1 home record is the most impressive number working in their favor, definitely more impressive than Peyton Mannings seven interceptions over the last two games. Manning is still one of the greats, but this season he’s looking human working with a less than a legitimate NFL offense. The Cowboys defense is fast and should play well in the dome. It’s hard to imagine the Colts not taking advantage of their competitive division stance, but this team is looking more vulnerable every week, and the Cowboys are playing their best football of the season.

BALTIMORE (-3) over Pittsburgh

Since entering the league in 2004, the Steelers are 7-2 against the Ravens in games Ben Roethlisberger has played in, and 0-4 in games he hasn’t, including the Ravens 17-14 win week 4. The big story out of Pittsburgh this week was that Roethlisberger was in a walking boot nursing a sprained right foot. He’s supposed to play Sunday, but the Steelers offense hasn’t excelled the way they’re capable of and I don’t know if they’ll be at their best with a limping quarterback. I like the Ravens to end Big Bens 5-game win streak over them.

Lots of good games, and don’t forget the Monday Night Megabowl! I’m not as excited as my words may indicate, but I’ll be back with more on Monday. Enjoy…