Sep 19, 2010

NFL Week 2 Picks

Kansas City (+2) over CLEVELAND
Even if they're the home team, how could the Browns be a favorite in any game they play this season? My guess is it's because starting quarterback Jake Delhomme's out and Seneca Wallace is in. But seriously, I'll probably pick against the Browns in every game this season, and it doesn't help that they're playing a team with top-notch coaching, up-and-coming talent, and the team that I think will win the AFC West this year.

GREEN BAY (-13) over Buffalo
If you're in a survivor pool this is a clear pick, if you're picking against the lines I'm not totally convinced but I gotta go with the Pack. I don't think Buffalo is awful so I don't know that they'll lose by 13. The Bills strength is their defense so we'll see how much of a juggernaut this Packer offense really is, especially with Brandon Jackson taking the place of Ryan Grant for the rest of the season.

Baltimore (-2) over CINCINNATI
Try the veal, child...I think Ochocinco was better in FX's horrid show about fantasy football "The League" than he will be in the actual league on Sunday. We didn't see how banged up the Ravens secondary actually is when they dominated the vertically challenged Jets offense in Week 1, but at the same time we didn't exactly get to see how good their offense can be either. This will be one of the better games on a Sunday filled with tough match-ups, but I think Baltimore wins by more than 2.

Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE
Let me make this pick clear, I think the Titans will win this game, but not by 5 points or more. I really like both of these teams this year and if Roethlisberger was playing I'd probably go black and gold on this one, but he's not and Jeff Fisher's defense is too good to lose to Dennis Dixon. In the same respect, Mike Tomlin will not allow Dixon to go out and lose the game for his team. I expect this one to be close with the edge going to the more complete Titans. I know both of these teams were overhyped in 2009, but they could meet up again in the AFC championship game...real talk.

DETROIT (+6) over Philadelphia
Not only do I like the Lions to cover, I like them to win. I wasn't impressed with the Eagles in week 1 and them losing their starting quarterback can't help their gameplan. While I think Michael Vicks performance last week was the best story of the weekend, he carried his team on his back against a team that wasn't prepared for him. The Eagles run a pass heavy offense that I just don't think Vick can operate the way Andy Reid wants him to. And let's not forget that the Lions would be 1-0 instead of 0-1 had Calvin Johnson not made that bonehead mistake. Even with Shaun Hill I'm jumping on the bandwagon, let's go Lions!

Chicago (+7.5) over DALLAS
In a week of tough picks, this might be the toughest (for me at least). I don't think Dallas will beat the Bears by more than 7 points, but at the same time it's hard to fathom this team losing their home opener to start the season 0-2...or is it? I think the Bears will get good pressure on Tony Romo and unless the Cowboys run the ball I think they will in fact lose. I really don't like either of these teams, but I don't understand all of the hype around the Cowboys when they're a team that has proven nothing, full of guys that have proven nothing. I'm going upset and I'm going with Da Bears.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over CAROLINA
I know I'm going with a lot of upsets, I really want nothing to do with this game. I think Carolina's the better team and it's not like losing Matt Moore is insurmountable, but I think the Bucs are playing with confidence and the Panthers aren't. I've been impressed with Josh Freeman, who threw for 321 yards the last time he faced Carolina, and Tampa's a team that can only get better. I think the Panthers best bet would be to do nothing but run the football.

ATLANTA (-6.5) over Arizona
It's year three for Matt Ryan and this is a game he can't allow his team to lose, almost a statement game even. I don't like the Cardinals and if Atlanta wants to show the league they're a playoff team this is the week to do it.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) over Miami
Two good teams facing off, but Minnesota can't start the season 0-2. Favre wasn't overly impressive in his season debut last year either, but really started to get going week 2. I think we'll see more of that this year, and another impressive showing by the Minny defense, and the Vikes will come away with a win. However, my money wouldn't be on them covering the spread.

OAKLAND (-3.5) over St. Louis
I don't care what anybody says, both of these teams are turrrrible! Sam Bradford looked more than serviceable in his debut and even set the record for pass attempts for a rookie in week 1, that however didn't get his team a win. The Raiders are the slightly better team and will win at home.

Seattle (+3.5) over Denver
While the Jim Mora era in Seattle was nothing to write home about, there's a new regime in Starbucks town and the team is playing with a new identity. According to my west coast guy, he's never seen a team as pumped up as the Seahawks were during their week 1 upset of division favorite San Francisco. I think the Seahawks could win the NFC West and they'll prove themselves Sunday in Denver. This is of course if Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy.

WASHINGTON (+3) over Houston
Was there a more impressive team week 1 than the Texans? We already know they can air it out, and seeing big, bad, bruising Arian Foster demolish the Colts defense makes us think this Houston team is ready to take it to the next level. With that said, I could probably run for 100 yards against the Colts. The Redskins defense looked great against Dallas and I think the Shanahan-McNabb duo will tame the Texans and start the season 2-0.

Jacksonville (+7) over SAN DIEGO
I like Jacksonville to cover and I think they can pull the upset special against a flat looking Chargers team. I hate to bet against a perennial contender, at home, trying to avoid an 0-2 start, but I think the Jags are a tough out and Phil Rivers is starting to lose confidence in his teammates, coaches, and management. I don't like the Chargers this year, even in a weak division, and I can't see them beating a hard-nosed team like Jacksonville by 7 or more points.

New England (-2.5) over NY JETS
I don't think I hate writing anything in the world more than that. I'd rather write Jared Mintz is an idiot Bart Simpson style than pick the Pats over the Jets. I have to hope the Jets come out pumped after getting killed not only by the media this week, but by the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If the Jets secondary looked so bad against the Ravens, they'll probably get eaten alive by Brady, Welker and company. I'm leaving the Revis/Moss situation alone, but I fear Belichick is licking his chops with Sanchez. As a Jets fan I'm scared, but not hopeless.

INDIANAPOLIS (-5.5) over NY Giants
Other than the Carolina/Tampa game (seriously) this one took me the longest to choose. Scientifically speaking I like the Giants. They have a solid run game, an explosive passing game, and a pretty good pass-rush. Then you have to throw in the intangibles. Peyton Manning is a freak of nature who hasn't started a season 0-2 since his rookie season, and the Giants haven't showed up for a big game since Superbowl 42. This one should be fun and could really go either way. All I know is the Colts don't want to start the season 0-2 and in the cellar of the AFC South.

New Orleans (-5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Defending champs who are probably most complete team in football and still feel they have a lot to prove, or team everyone wants to pick to win weakest division in football, who have passed their window to be surprise team by 2 years now and are led by quarterback with smaller hands than most 9-year olds. Done and done.

Enjoy the festivities.

1 comment:

Jared said...

i just read simmons picks...dammit mine are earily similar, and my lines were per wednesday, they didn't change much but they're not the final lines