Week 11 Picks

So I didn't get my picks up in time for the Thursday night game this week, sorry guys, but I'm going to keep it real and tell you all that I had the Dolphins to cover. If you don't know yet, they lost by 16 at home and were nowhere near covering at any point in the evening. The Bears were very impressive but I can't help but question the Dolphins strategy for this one. They didn't take any pressure off of Tyler Thigpen as they ran the ball 13 times. With a banged up offensive line and a rather inexperienced quarterback going up against a fierce pass rush, why would you make the night so difficult on your offense? Just mind boggling.

Here are my picks for the rest of Week 11...

(Lines as of Saturday morning, home time in caps)

Oakland (+7.5) over PITTSBURGH

All signs point towards the Steelers in this one. They’re coming off of a tough home loss, they have the best run defense and the Raiders are a run heavy team, and they have back-to-back road games coming up next. However, I think the Raiders cover in this one. Riding a 3-game win streak into their bye, the Raiders seem to have been clicking on all cylinders. Even though they’re being led by the quarterback chosen by Al Davis not Tom Cable, Oakland is +3 in the turnover battle the last three weeks as Jason Campbell has a 5 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. They’re taking care of the football and giving everyone their best shot, so I like the Raiders to lose by less than 8 points.

Houston (+6.5) over NY JETS

The Jets are killing me. They should have lost to the Browns about 5 times last week, but somehow they found a way to get the ball back and operate confidently. The one thing I’m hearing a lot of is that if the Jets are 7-2 playing the way they’ve played the last five weeks or so, the NFL is in a lot of trouble because they’re only going to get better. With that said, I think they struggle to cover but should beat the banged up Texans come Sunday.

Baltimore (-11) over CAROLINA

The Panthers just have nothing going for them on the offensive side of the ball. The O-line has been very disappointing and their running backs just haven’t gotten acclimated this season, and it’s already week 11. They struggle on defense almost as much as they struggle on offense, and unfortunately for them the Ravens really excel at both. I dislike 11-point home dogs but I dislike the Panthers even more.

Washington (+7) over TENNESSEE

Last week I went 2-0 on insight over gut picks, and I’m going to come out and take my guts side instead here. After how bad the Redskins have looked the last two games there’s no reason to think they can hang with one of the NFL’s toughest teams. But I believe in Donovan McNabb and I don’t think Mike Shanahan is as awful as he’s made his team look the last couple of times out. There’s still a lot of talent on the Redskins and their offense could get back Clinton Portis to team up with Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams to form a legitimate running threat.

Detroit (+6) over DALLAS

The Lions seem to cover every week, the end.

Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA

I wish the Vikings would just go away already. It’s disgusting that a team that’s played so poorly all season still gets as much attention as they do. Brett Favre still has his moments and it’s a real intriguing story that the team plays well sometimes even in spite of Brad Childress. No, it’s an annoying story about a bunch of underachievers and an owner who has been too passive to fire a coach who has been less than effective for sometime now. It just bothers me to see a franchise with so much talent just completely miss out on their window for success because they’re too stubborn to change the coach. The Packers are the real team that deserves attention in the NFC North and they’re going to light up their rivals on Sunday.

CINCINNATI (-5) over Buffalo

The defending AFC North champs have lost 6-straight heading into Buffalo to play a team they haven’t beaten in almost 22 years, how could you not like the Bengals in this one? I’ve been picking the Bills lately, but I just can’t see the Bengals losing this one, they have too much talent to lose to both good and bad teams.

Cleveland (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

As I mentioned earlier the Browns should have beaten the Jets about 5 times when the two teams faced off in the Buddy Bowl last week, the Jets found a way to win because that’s what good teams do, the Jaguars aren’t quite the Jets. I continue to be impressed by Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis, and while I think the Jags are a gritty, efficient, rather lucky team, I think the Browns have been coming out and playing hard and will be the better team Sunday.

KANSAS CITY (-8) over Arizona

You think Todd Haley’s going to lose to his loser former team? Although the weapons have changed for the Cardinals, Haley knows the oppositions best players and will gameplan against their weaknesses to come back after last weeks embarrassing loss to the Broncos. The Cards don’t do much right and the Chiefs are about as by the book of a ground-and-pound team as you’ll find in the league today.

NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) over Seattle

Reggie Bush is still questionable, but the Saints superiority doesn’t seem to be any more. While the Falcons have been the talk of the NFC South, the Saints have quietly gotten back up to 6-3 after a shocking home loss to the Browns. The Saints have proven to be resilient even without some of their key players (Pierre Thomas, Darren Sharper, Bush) and I expect them to keep impressing against a Seahawks team that has been outscored 46-92 in their last three games.

Atlanta (-3) over ST. LOUIS

I’m always rooting for the Rams, but I think we’ll find out just how far away they are from being an above average team on Sunday when they play against a legitimately good team for the first time all season (sorry Chargers, you weren’t even close at the time). I think the Rams could be in this one with their good defense and ever improving offense, but the Falcons get it done on both sides of the field.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Are you really going to believe that Troy Smith is righting the ship in San Francisco? I mean it would be a great story and it’s not like there’s anyone I’m more inclined to root for in the NFC West, but you shouldn’t start a season 1-6 and still be in the running for a playoff spot just three weeks later. The Bucs have taken care of business going 6-0 against teams with sub .500 records, and I believe they’ll continue to do so on the road against the Niners.

Indianapolis (+4) over NEW ENGLAND

I’m doing it again, going gut over insight. I don’t care who you put on the same field as Peyton Manning, I like him in the big games and I’m going to take him against a team that I’m not convinced is royalty just yet. That’s not even me being a Jets homer and hating on the Patriots, it’s me really liking Manning and knowing that the Pats are vulnerable. Offensively speaking the Patriots matched up great against the Steelers, they have three very gifted Tight Ends who catch, block, do everything, and there wasn’t anything the Steelers could do about the battle of the middle of the field. The Colts have found their identity on offense (like 10 years ago) and even though the defense is a work in progress to say the least, they’re exceeding expectations and are doing an incredible job in the secondary.

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over NY Giants

I’m not going to talk about Michael Vick extensively because everyone else in America has already done that this week. The most ridiculous thing I’m hearing is that he’s a wild card, that you don’t know what you’re going to get out of Vick on any given Sunday. I know you’re going to get a guy with incredible wheels who also has the best completion percentage of his career this season. The Giants are very strong up front on the defensive side of the ball, but Vick will exploit their back seven if he can get out of the pocket, which if you didn’t know is his strength. The Giants offensive line is also very beat up and if you don’t win the wars on the trenches then you lose the game. I like the Eagles this week.

Denver (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO

The Broncos got their first 100-yard rusher last week against a very good Chiefs team, and now that they’re not so one-dimensional they’re actually a threat to the rest of the league. I think 9.5 is too many points to give to a team still playing with practice squad players. I’m very impressed by the Chargers ability to beat the Titans and the Texans, but divisional games are never that easy and ten points is a lot.

My Blue Heaven (College Hoops is back!)

“It’s the most wonderful time, of the year” proclaimed singer and Christmas music extraordinaire Andy Williams in 1963. I know you only hear that song on the radio during one season (yes Christmas is an unofficial season), but I’ve had it looping through my head all day as I wrap myself around the notion that college basketball will be played for 24-straight hours on Tuesday!

Cinderella slipped up and her evil stepmother took her shoe to a fourth national championship last April, and now the evil step-blue devil heads into the new season as the favorite to repeat. I’m not going to ask myself can Duke repeat, any team can come out and win the championship in todays one-and-done themed collegiate game, but will Duke repeat? I’m saying yes.

Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer, Ty Lawson, Danny Green and Wayne Ellington, Mario Chalmers and Sherron Collins; if you haven’t caught my drift I’m saying loaded backcourts win national championships. Sure Scheyer’s gone, but Duke has four guards who would start on any team in the country, literally, any team in the country.

Nolan Smith broke out in his Junior season, being named to the All-ACC second team as well as the All-Final Four team after averaging 16 points and 5 assists in his weekend stay in Indianapolis. Smith most definitely benefited from Scheyers leadership and shooting ability, but down the stretch Smith proved his maturity as a player and is back to repeat and try to earn himself a lottery pick in 2011’s NBA Draft.

Speaking of lottery picks, Duke has something heading into the new season that they haven’t had in almost a decade, and that’s a top-5 guard recruit in Kyrie Irving. Irving is ranked third in ESPNU’s Rankings for the incoming freshman class (top-ranked point guard), and was named first team Parade Magazine All-America, USA Today All-USA first team, and Slam Magazine All America. The New Jersey product is most renowned for his ball handling skills and great passing, but he’ll remind Duke fans of another NJ native in Jason Williams with his explosiveness, athleticism, and scoring prowess.

As if Smith and Irving aren’t enough, the Blue Devils return Andre Dawkins and will add a little Curry to the mix with Stephen Curry’s baby bro Seth. Dawkins was Duke’s leading scorer off of the bench last season, can handle the ball, and is probably the teams best pure shooter outside of preseason Player of the Year Finalist Kyle Singler. And then there’s Seth Curry. The nations best programs will never forget the mistake they all made by not offering Stephen Curry the scholarship (and probably house and cars) he deserved, and after seeing Seth dominate the Big South to the tune of 20 points per game as a freshman (!) at Liberty, Mike Krzyzewski knew it would be smart to extend a scholarship to the combo guard.

Aside from having four very capable guards, the Blue Devils return both Miles and Mason Plumlee, sophomore big man Ryan Kelly, freshman Josh Hairston (ESPNU’s number seven ranked power forward recruit), and the previously mentioned Singler. Singler can only improve on his late-lottery bound draft stock for next June as he's a National Player of the Year and first team All-America candidate heading into the season. Singler was named the NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player, ACC Tournament MVP, as well as first team All-ACC just a season ago and has really become one of if not the most well-rounded player in America. Kyrie Irving may have Jason Williams hype heading into the season, but Singler has played the role of a Mike Dunleavy/Shane Battier hybrid the way he shoots, scores inside, plays defense, grabs rebounds, and leads by example.

Duke will be hurt down-low with the losses of Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas, but I expect both Plumlee brothers to really come into their own this year. Mason is very quick and very athletic, while Miles is a work horse who seems to get stronger looking by the month. They’ll miss Scheyer’s leadership as well, but with the combination of talent and experience in the backcourt, the absence of Scheyer will be overcome much easier than that of the 7’1 Zoubek.

I know that Duke usually isn’t the popular pick with their lack of NBA talent and their reputation for being a bunch of slow Caucasian guards who can only shoot, but these aren’t your older cousins Blue Devils. Coach K finally has the guards he needs to really utilize his press defense as well as his perimeter-based offense. And if you don’t like Duke this year then who do you like?

Michigan State will be in the top-tier this season as they return Kailin Lucas, Draymond Green and Delvon Roe (not to mention Tom Izzo). I like Kansas State even if Jacob Pullen lost his backcourt mate Denis Clemente, but neither of those two teams have the talent that Duke has. Maybe if Robbie Hummel didn’t tear his ACL again Purdue would be a real threat. North Carolina will never make it past the sweet 16 with a backcourt of Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland (although they do have an absolutely disgusting freshman class). Kentucky will always have to be watched when they have top recruiting class after top recruiting class coming in. And don’t forget about Syracuse, they may have lost their two best players from last season, but Jim Boheim brought in top-notch talent and Kris Joseph is as capable as anyone to fill Wesley Johnson’s shoes. Other teams that I think will be in the hunt come March are Ohio State, Pittsburgh, and Washington, with Florida, Memphis, Villanova and Butler making serious runs and dominating their respective conferences.

Regardless of who wins this season I’m just so excited to get 300-plus basketball teams back in action. From Hawaii to Hartford, and Murray State (watch out for real) to St. Johns (probably not yet), it doesn’t matter whose playing, all that matters is that it’s the most wonderful time of the year.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL! And Week 10 Picks...

Welcome readers to an early edition of my picks. Thursday night football is back tonight with what could be a Superbowl preview. Personally, halfway through the season I can’t really see Atlanta getting there, but the NFC is up for grabs and Atlanta’s about as good as anyone in that conference.

I’d also like to really quickly thank Wilk for posting his picks against mine. Win, lose, or draw I’m excited to have some reader interaction and more than encourage it from anyone who may come across my picks. There’s no money on the line obviously, just pride, which over the last couple of weeks I’ve managed to diminish some of with how much parity there is in this league. I digress…here are my picks:

(Lines as of Thursday Morning, home teams in caps)

ATLANTA (-1) over Baltimore

I toggled picks over and over again on this one, and it’s a great way to start the NFL’s Thursday night series. We have two very good teams coming off of a very short week, the Ravens have the slight edge on defense with the Falcons having the slight edge on offense. Ultimately what it comes down to for me is that Matt Ryan has won 13 straight home games and in my opinion is the better quarterback in the matchup with Joe Flacco. Flacco has a chance to even the playing fields against a less than stellar Falcons secondary, but I think the home advantage will help the roughed up Falcons offense pull this one out.

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Cincinnati

The good news for Cincinnati: this is the end of their four-game stretch against Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis. The bad news for Cincinnati: they lost to the Browns and Bucs before they lost the first three of their tough stretch. If anybody’s wondering how T.O. and Ochocinco have television shows (yes plural) just look at their sidelines. T.O. whines, Ocho cries (literally) and poor Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer have to shoulder the losing. I don’t expect a different Bengals team to all of a sudden show up in Indy, but I do expect the same Peyton Manning we’ve been drooling over for a decade to show up and cover.

Houston (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

The Jaguars three game home win-streak against the Texans has to come to an end Sunday. Jacksonville has the 28^th ranked pass defense, and although Arian Foster’s playing MVP-worthy football, the Texans can still air it out. While the Texans defense has proven to be a joke, especially against the passing game, they’re coming off of two tough losses in games they were in down the stretch against very good teams. Contrary to popular believe, the Jaguars are not a very good team.

MIAMI (+2) over Tennessee

This is a very tough one, or maybe it isn’t and I’m just a real homer. I don’t think Chad Pennington is really a starting QB in the NFL at this point in his career, but I do think that he’s a gamer and that he’ll bring something to the table for the Dolphins Sunday. He’s been down and out before, and has found a way to come back strongly and really lead a team. I think Tennessee is a better team, but that the Fins either win or cover.

CHICAGO (+1) over Minnesota

I just don’t see how a team that is literally in the process of overthrowing their coach can come out and win this one on the road. The Bears aren’t that good of a team, at all, and I think that the Vikings probably have the more talented defense, but coaching and quarterbacks usually win in the NFL and while the Bears have Lovie Smith, the Vikings have someone who has no control of his team. Brett Favre’s coming off of his most impressive performance of the season but in this game I think he and Jay Cutler are a coin flip. My gut wants to take the Vikings, but my insight says Bears…we’ll see which force prevails.

Detroit (+3) over BUFFALO

Haven’t the Lions proved enough times this season that it doesn’t matter who their quarterback is? Shaun Hill has proven start after start to be one of the most dependable backups in the league, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get a look from some team next year. Alright my love fest for Hill aside, the nerve of Vegas to make a winless team 3 point favorites against one of the most surging teams in football astonishes me. Despite giving up a late lead to the Jets (the 6-2 Jets I remind you, for numerous reasons), the Lions have a very good pass rush and will overwhelm the Bills bad offensive line.

NY Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND

It’s arguable that the Browns are the hottest team in the league, and after watching them play last week I’m sold that they can hang with any team they play against…which makes this a scary pick seeing how the Jets have had to really squeak out their last 3 wins. Colt McCoy has been making plays with his legs and his arm, and if the Jets pass rush isn’t top-notch they better be ready to stop the run, because McCoy is mobile and Peyton Hillis is tied for third in the NFL with 7 rushing TD’s and is a real power back. But the Jets have been taking advantage of Eric Mangini since he was run out of town and I have to go with my 6 and 2 Jets to pull this one out.

TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over Carolina

I have nothing good to say about the Panthers so I’m going to leave them alone.

Kansas City (-1) over DENVER

They run the ball and they play defense, how could the Chiefs possibly lose this one? The Broncos have the worst rush defense in the league and the Chiefs have the top ranked rush offense, which translates into the Chiefs will dominate the time of possession and the Broncos are in for a long day.

St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO

Frank Gore has run for over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns in three of his last four games against the Rams, but this is a different, rebuilt Rams defense. With little notoriety, the Rams have a top-10 defense, and in all likelihood the offensive rookie of the year. What do the 49ers have? An overrated defense and a well below average offense with Troy Smith taking the snaps. The NFC West is still up for grabs, and while the Niners look like paper champions, they have a way better shot than the Cowboys or Vikings (other disappointments in wayyyy tougher divisions) at making a run at their division. It’s too bad they won’t.

ARIZONA (-3) over Seattle

I picked the Cardinals for the first time last week and I liked it so much that I’m going to do it again! Just kidding, I really don’t like either of these teams but Arizona really had the Vikings backs against the wall and look the best they’ve looked all season with Derek Anderson. Both of these teams stink.

Dallas (+13.5) over NY GIANTS

I’m really sorry Giants fans, I know you’re sick of me picking against them. Let me admit, they’re the class of the NFC to my complete and utter shock. I don’t know that any team in football gets to the QB the way that they do, and they’re very, very well-rounded on offense. While the Cowboys didn’t get up to play for Wade Phillips this season, I doubt they’ll get up to play in remembrance of him, but I think Jason Garrett has this team more focused than they’ve been all season. I just think 13.5 is a lot of points, and while this game has the potential to be a blowout I can’t see the Cowboys losing by more than ten at worst.

New England (+4.5) over PITTSBURGH

I think the Steelers are the much better team in this one, but that the Patriots have a knack of playing their best against top-notch talent. The Steelers defense is just filthy, but their offense hasn’t quite clicked yet. Either we’ll see them still working out the kinks against an overmatched, well-coached defense, or they’ll get it and make this game a blowout…which most likely won’t happen seeing how the Patriots haven’t lost back-to-back games by double digits since weeks 15 and 16 of the 2002 season. Another battle between gut and insight…and once again I’m going insight.

Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON

Here’s what we may see: McNabb responds to Shanahan’s benching by lighting up his former team and proving his doubters wrong. Here’s what I think we will see, McNabb and Redskins offense look average at best and thriving Eagles continue to roll.

Thanks for reading, feel free to post your picks, and stay posted as we await the results between Jared’s gut and Jared’s insight…

Last week : 6-6-1 (I can’t be getting beat on my own blog!)

Week 9 Picks

Lines as of Friday afternoon, home teams in Caps

BUFFALO (+3) over Chicago (in Toronto, Canada)
Bills are getting closer, the Bears are sloppy, it’s not like they have much of a home-field advantage in Toronto, but they’re just due.

HOUSTON (+2.5) over San Diego
Andre Johnson’s playing with a bummed ankle, but the Chargers still have a lot to prove even after beating a very good Titans team last week. One thing’s for sure, we’ll find out how good the Chargers defense really is going up against one of the more dynamic offenses in football.

New Orleans (-6.5) over CAROLINA
The Panthers are terrible, and somehow only lost by two the last time these two teams met. The Saints are coming off of a huge win and have to crush teams like the Panthers as they try to defend what’s still their championship.

Arizona (+8) over MINNESOTA
I know the Cards are bad, but they can definitely cover 8 points against a struggling Vikings team.

Tampa Bay (+8.5) over ATLANTA
Again, I think 9 points is too much for the home favorite to cover. The Bucs’ record may be better than their talent but I think they’re too well coached to lose that bad to a team they see so much of.

NY Jets (-4) over DETROIT
I know I know, the Lions are the best 2-5 team in the NFL, they’re still a 2-5 team. The Jets played their best game of the season after they looked so bad in their season opener, I expect a similar performance in a hostile environment against an up-and-coming Lions team. I just feel like the Jets D will get the best of Matt Stafford and hopefully Schotty and Rex will call a better game for Sanchez than they did last week.

Miami (+5.5) over BALTIMORE
I think Baltimore wins this one, but Miami burned me last week for not picking them. Going Dolphins to cover.

CLEVELAND (+4) over New England
Going out on a limb here. I know there’s no such thing as a trap game for a Belichick coached team, especially not if they’re playing against and Eric Mangini coached team, but I don’t think the Pats are as good as their record. I’m going to get slaughtered by Patriots fans, and I’ll apologize if I’m wrong, but this is my blog so I’m going Browns!

SEATTLE (+7) over NY Giants
Another unpopular pick I’m sure, but I gotta go with the home team here. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Giants are the way better team in this game, especially with Charlie freaking Whitehurst starting for the Seahawks, but winning by a TD at Qwest Field is no easy task. I don’t like the Giants flying across country, and special teams really has to be on top of their game for the G-Men. I’m pretty sure the Giants will win this game, but I don’t think they will be 7 or more.

Kansas City (+1) over OAKLAND
I want to pick the Raiders so bad in this one, but they’re just not the better team. Their number one receiving option is Darius Heyward-Bay and the Chiefs are such a better team than either Denver or Seattle. I’m tempted to say the Raiders are the hottest team in football, and playing this game at home will definitely be incentive enough to play as well as they have the last two weeks, but the Chiefs are a very grounded team and will end the Raiders win streak.

Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
I don’t think the Colts D can keep up with Vick, but I don’t think anyone can stop Peyton right now. The 28th ranked Colts run defense needs to be better against Philly, but I don’t see the Eagles getting big stops against the red-hot Colts.

Dallas (+7.5) over GREEN BAY
See, this is a spread I like for the Cowboys. There’s no way the Cowboys are even in this game if Green Bay’s pass rush is as effective as they were against the Jets, but things can only get better for Dallas, and losing by more than a touchdown this week against the Packers isn’t in the cards for them. The Cowboys have the 10th best pass defense in football, which isn’t great, but should be good enough to not get slaughtered by a banged up Packers receiving core. I can’t believe I’m doing it but I’m going Cowboys.

Pittsburgh (-5) over CINCINNATI
I think the Steelers might struggle a little bit to find their identity on offense, but there’s no way they can struggle the way the Bengals have been. They’ve lost 4 straight, and have the Steelers, the Colts, the Jets, and the Saints in four of their next five games. Season over. Not to mention I think the Steelers are the best team in football, and I can’t see them losing back-to-back games.

Last week: 6-7 (not good)